China’s statistics bureau publishes a number every month that runs ahead of the price round and nobody in European purchasing reads it

China’s statistics bureau publishes a number every month that runs ahead of the price round and nobody in European purchasing reads it.

I am Siggi. I know the chemistry in Asia.

A suggestion on how to get Chinese market information in purchasing without paying for it.

Every month China’s statistics bureau reports the value of industrial output and, next to it, what share of that output was sold in the same month. This product sales rate, in Chinese chanpin xiaoshoulü, stood at 96.8 percent in August, 0.1 points below the previous year. The rest stayed in the plant. That is normal, the rate almost always sits between 96 and 98. The level says little, the movement might say something. Because when goods are left standing, the warehouse fills first and only then does the price give way. Whether the rate really runs ahead of quotations can only be known by putting it next to your own purchase prices for a year. That takes a few minutes a month. And the rate covers all of industry, not chemicals.

The real value sits right next to it. The same releases contain figures on chemicals that hardly anyone in Europe reads in the original.

Output of the chemical sector was unchanged in August and grew by 3.7 percent from January to August, while industry as a whole gained 5.2 percent. Ethylene came to 3.6 million tonnes, up 3.6 percent.

Factory gate prices for chemicals were 9.1 percent above the previous year, but 0.1 percent lower than in July. Purchase prices for chemical raw materials rose 9.5 percent on the year and fell 0.4 percent on the month. One month is not a turning point, but this is exactly where one would become visible first.

From January to July the chemical sector earned 56.6 percent more than a year earlier. So anyone assuming that Chinese producers are under pressure should know this figure.

What to make of it in purchasing is for everyone to decide. One option is to keep terms shorter while the direction is unclear, and to talk about delivery dates, volumes and packaging rather than price when the producer’s earnings are healthy.

The figures apply to the sector, not to a single product. Whether a particular raw material is tight, only the producer knows. But the conversation runs differently when you know the direction before it appears in the offer.

That is the point. Anyone who follows China only through quotations and offers sees the result and never the cause. Output, prices and profits are published every month, publicly and free of charge. You just have to read them.

All figures are from the monthly releases of China’s statistics bureau of 27 August, 9 September and 15 September 2026.

That's the chemistry.
Siggi